If California's Proposition 19 wins in 12 days, it will be because students came out and voted.
As Firedoglake's Jon Walker points out, those most likely to vote yes on Prop 19 are also those most likely to not vote on November 2.
According to the recent SurveyUSA poll, supporters of Prop 19 are more likely to be infrequent voters and less likely to have already voted by mail. The poll found those voters who say they “always” vote oppose Prop 19 by a margin of 44 to 47. On the other hand, likely voters who tend to rarely vote in midterms overwhelmingly support Prop 19. As a group, these infrequent voters support Prop 19 by a margin of nearly two to one, 58 percent to 34 percent. This means that for every two percent increase in overall turnout from infrequent voters, there would be an almost one percent increase in support for Prop 19.Bottom line. Young people not only need to vote on Nov. 2, they have to drag their friends and peers to the polls with them.
The poll also found that among people who have already sent in a ballot, Prop 19 is narrowly losing, 47 percent to 50 percent, but it leads 48 to 42 among those who plan to vote but have not already. Of course, people who have already voted can’t change their minds and, by definition, can’t forget to vote on election day, which is not true with those who have yet to vote early.